Netflix released a big slate of 2020 Oscars hopefuls, and scored a whopping 19 nominations between three major feature films. Which will win the most at the Academy Awards?
There are plenty of chances for the streaming giant to take home some golden statues at the most prestigious entertainment awards show. Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman accounted for more than half (10) of the nominations.
But let’s not count out writer-director Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story and another virtual two-hander, The Two Popes. The major actors in all those films received nominations, too.
Here’s a breakdown of each Netflix film and what the forecast looks like for their 2020 Oscar nominees.
The Irishman: Behind-the-scenes should take the cake
You’d think Al Pacino and Joe Pesci both being nominated for Best Supporting Actor would lead to a win for one of them. However, Brad Pitt is such a favorite from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood that it’s his to lose.
Pesci and Pacino have both won before, and Pitt hasn’t, so it makes sense. But it’s more the technical achievement of what went into The Irishman duo and Robert De Niro making this project possible that’ll likely be awarded.
The de-aging technology alone should give this film an Oscar for visual effects. Cutting all that footage together was also quite a task. Firstly, the film is 3.5 hours long. Three cameras were used to capture the actors so that technology didn’t interfere with the on-set filmmaking process.
For all these factors, Thelma Schoonmaker should win the Oscar for film editing. As for Scorsese, he lost Best Director at the Golden Globes to Sam Mendes for 1917, and I’d expect the same here.
The story is a beautiful one but probably too glacially paced to earn screenwriter Steven Zaillian the hardware. Finally, cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto did an admirable job, yet he’s up against 1917 and The Lighthouse, which I think are the clear favorites.
On the Best Picture front, The Irishman has a puncher’s chance. That’s about all, because 1917 won and should again.
Production design and costume design are the movie’s best chance to collect additional awards. Continuity and consistency in a decades-spanning story should earn plenty of notice from the Academy.
Marriage Story: 2 powerhouse leads, 1 supporting winner
Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson earned nominations for Best Actor and Best Actress respectively. The Golden Globes favored Joker‘s Joaquin Phoenix and Renée Zellweger’s Judy.
It’s improbable Johansson flips the script on Zellweger at the 2020 Oscars, but Netflix could pull an upset with Driver over Phoenix still. Driver won a lot more among smaller film critic circles. However, Phoenix has serious momentum after the Golden Globes and was widely considered the Oscars favorite over Driver anyway.
As for Marriage Story‘s other nominations, Laura Dern won at the Golden Globes and should again. She plays a multifaceted, manipulative yet empathetic divorce lawyer and crushes it.
While his story is a long shot for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay could well be Baumbach’s to win. It’s a beautifully-written movie, with an all-timer of an argument scene between the two leads at its apex.
Of course, unless the Academy wants 1917 to sweep every major category.
Randy Newman’s score is strong, yet Joker should win. It’s a great chance for the Academy to deservedly award a composer in Hildur Guðnadóttir who’d be only the third woman to earn that Oscar.
CHECK OUT: SNIPdaily’s Marriage Story Netflix review
The Two Popes: At least the Pryce is right
Jonathan Pryce shouldn’t have had to wait this long for his first Academy Award nomination. Thankfully, the veteran actor earned his first Best Actor bid this time around, despite being part of a loaded category.
The 2020 Oscars was always going to have a hard time narrowing it down to five men for Best Actor. Thankfully, they got it right by including Pryce, who shined opposite fellow nominee Anthony Hopkins.
JoJo Rabbit is going to be hard to top for Adapted Screenplay, but if anyone can do it, look for Anthony McCarten. Quite a run he’s had. Tell me if this is any good for his prior three films: The Theory of Everything, Darkest Hour and Bohemian Rhapsody.
Unfortunately for Pryce, it looks like McCarten’s streak of Best Actor winners will end. But McCarten should be considered a real contender to bring home the top prize after losing out for The Theory of Everything and Darkest Hour.
Final predictions: The Irishman takes home three Oscars, while Marriage Story nets two from Dern and Baumbach, and The Two Popes gets a win from McCarten.